Próximo jueves 28 de mayo a las 13:oo horas el economista Nezih Guner participará en un nuevo seminario de economía con su paper «Demographic Transitions Across Time and Space», joint with Matt Delventhal and Jesús Fernández-Villaverde.
Abstract: The demographic transition, i.e., the move from a regime of high fertility/high mortality into a regime of low fertility/low mortality, is a process that almost every country on Earth has undergone or is undergoing. Are all demographic transitions equal? Have they changed in speed and shape over time? And, how do they relate to economic development? To answer these questions, we put together a data set of birth and death rates for 186 countries that spans more than 250 years. Then, we use a novel econometric method to identify start and end dates for transitions in birth and death rates. We find, first, that the average speed of transitions has increased steadily over time. Second, we document that income per capita at the start of these transitions is more or less constant over time. Third, we uncover evidence of demographic contagion: the entry of a country into the demographic transition is strongly associated with its neighbors, countries that are geographically and culturally close, having already entered into the transition even after controlling for other observables. Next, we build a model of demographic transitions that can account for these facts. The model economy is populated by different locations. In each location, parents decide how many children to have and how much to invest in their human capital. There is skill-biased technological change that diffuses slowly from the frontier country, Britain, to the rest of the world.
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